Estimating NHS and social care spend: a tool for commissioners

This tool, developed in Miscrosoft Excel, aims to support commissioners to estimate how a local care economy spends its money by age group, patient group and care settings.

By filling in some basic variables, commissioners can create a quick, indicative patient segmentation for their locality.

Monitor have published an accompanying user-guide to help commissioners.


Before using the ‘Care Spend Estimating Tool’, commissioners should assemble the data they need. You can then create an indicative population segmentation for your CCG based on one of the four archetypes.

To use the tool, a minimum of four inputs are required:

  1. the total population of the CCG
  2. demographic growth assumptions for years 0-4 (by age group)
  3. non-demographic growth assumptions (ie increase in activity per capita) by setting of care (eg whether the average number of A&E attendances per capita is likely to increase), for years 0–4
  4. commissioner spend growth assumptions for each setting of care for years 0–4

Commissioners can customise other elements of the model to obtain more accurate insights, by overriding the default settings with data for a specific CCG. Inputs that can
be tailored are:

  1. population profile by age and patient group (eg 6% of the population is known to be 16−69 with one long term condition (LTC) rather than the default 9%)
  2. total spend by setting of care for year 0-10
  3. demographic growth assumptions for years 0-4 by patient group, as well as age group
  4. non-demographic growth assumptions for increase in activity per capita by age and patient group, as well as care setting, for years 0−4
  5. commissioner spend growth assumptions per patient group as well as each settingofcare for years 0−4